The Ceasefire That Wasn't: US and Iran Are Trading Strikes Again
A June peace deal is buckling. The Strait of Hormuz is a war zone. And your gas bill is about to find out.
Editor's note: Several claims below could not be independently verified; US and Iranian accounts of key events conflict.
Three months after a fragile April truce, Washington and Tehran are back to shooting at each other across the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz — where a fifth of the world's oil normally flows — is a combat zone. If you drive a car, heat a home, or hold energy stocks, this is your story.
The cycle reignited July 6, when the IRGC attacked three commercial ships in Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi crude tanker (Reuters, Jul 7). The US struck back with more than 80 Iranian targets. Iran fired missiles at US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait (NYT, Jul 9). By July 12, CENTCOM had hit more than 300 targets over three nights — air defenses, missile systems, coastal radar (Guardian, Jul 13).
On July 11, the IRGC declared the strait "closed" after hitting a cargo ship on an "unauthorized route" (Axios, Jul 11). The US rejected the claim. Two days later, Trump reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ships and reimposed oil sanctions (CNN, Jul 13).
How we got here
The crisis traces to February 28, when US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (WashPost, Mar 1). Six weeks of war ended with a ceasefire around April 8. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei — with IRGC ties — was selected as supreme leader on March 8 (Guardian, Mar 8). He wasn't seen in public until July 11, when state media released a statement from him vowing revenge (Al Jazeera, Jul 11).
On June 17, Trump signed the "Islamabad MoU" — a 14-point framework brokered with Pakistani and Qatari mediation (AP). It called for a ceasefire on all fronts, free Hormuz shipping for 60 days, lifting US oil sanctions, releasing roughly $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and Iran neutralizing its enriched uranium stockpile. No mutually agreed text has been released. US and Iranian accounts differ on what was actually promised.
The nuclear file is a mess. VP JD Vance said June 22 that Iran had agreed to let IAEA inspectors return (NPR, Jun 23). Iranian officials immediately denied it. The FDD reported July 8 that Iran was still working at a nuclear site in apparent violation of the MoU — unverified (FDD, Jul 8). The JCPOA has expired. UN sanctions were reimposed via snapback in September 2025.
Neither side is walking away — yet
Trump has sent mixed signals. At the NATO summit in Ankara on July 8, he declared the MoU "over," called Iranian leaders "scum," then partially walked it back the next day (Al Jazeera, Jul 10). He also threatened "1000 Missiles… Locked and Loaded." A US official told Al Jazeera that Washington remains committed to negotiations. Take from that what you will.
Iran's Foreign Ministry said the strikes had "rendered futile all efforts" at peace (Guardian, Jul 13). Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf warned that "the era of one-sided deals is OVER." Iran filed a UN Security Council complaint.
As analyst Alex Vatanka told Al Jazeera: "Neither Tehran nor Washington seems willing to pay the price of another full-scale conflict." The most likely scenario is continued calibrated strikes with intermittent mediation by Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan. Whether this escalates into a second full-scale war depends on whether the Hormuz route dispute can be resolved without either side losing face. On current evidence, it's not close.
Sources
The US has launched a “series of powerful strikes against Iran,” US Central Command said in a statement Tuesday. The Trump administration also reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships near the critical waterway. Follow here for the latest.
US president declares waterway open and demands tariff as both sides engage in heavy drone and missile exchanges
While Trump said the MoU with Iran is 'over', US officials have reaffirmed Washington's commitment to continue talks.
Analysts say door to diplomacy still open despite exchange of attacks and threats.
The US launched more strikes against Iran at President Donald Trump’s direction, US Central Command said. Iran’s military said it struck and disabled two “rogue supertankers,” hours after the UAE said Iranian missiles hit two of its tankers in Omani territorial waters.
An initial agreement to end the war between the United States and Iran calls for Tehran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and would waive sanctions on the country, immediately allowing Iran to sell its oil freely.
Move could lead to escalation of war as Donald Trump has already called Mojtaba Khamenei an ‘unacceptable’ choice
The US launched strikes after Iran fired on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz and declared the waterway closed.
Iran is refusing any arrangement that undermines Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and is using force to maintain its control.